Dumb Money Live
Return
+96.9%
Hit rate
52%
Open calls
73
Closed
12
Performance
Growth of 100 in this picker's book — the Return above, over time. The book is split equally across whatever is open, re-split each time one of the 84 priced call(s) opens or closes, and held in between: what following them equal-weight would have done. The book starts at Jan 01, 2024 — the same date every book on the site starts — flat at 100 until this picker's first tracked call, with benchmarks measured from the same day, so the gap to the index is comparable across pickers. Price returns, excluding dividends on both sides. Hypothetical; excludes fees and taxes.
Growth of 100
Coverage is not complete. Calls are read from video transcripts, and some videos can't be captured — YouTube does not always serve the captions, and a video we miss is a call we never see. Buys are announced and sells are quiet, so what a missing video most likely hides is an exit: a position may show as open that the picker has already closed. Treat these as a good-faith reconstruction, not an audited record.
Open calls
| Ticker | Called | Entry | Now | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U | Sep 08, 2026 | $41.04 | $43.96 | +7.1% |
| Picks-and-shovels play for AI-generated games and worlds; Unity provides the editor, scenes, code execution, and AI gateway. | ||||
| VST | Sep 08, 2026 | $150.97 | $148.38 | -1.7% |
| Pure-play electricity trade benefiting from the substantially greater power required by expanding AI data centers. | ||||
| NBIS | Sep 08, 2026 | $236.00 | $224.55 | -4.8% |
| AI-infrastructure and cloud-related holding bought during the major market drop. | ||||
| BECN | Aug 10, 2026 | $124.17 | — | — |
| Google searches for “roof repair” reached roughly triple prior spring levels, signaling a major hail-driven roofing opportunity. | ||||
| BL | Jul 22, 2026 | $27.87 | $28.35 | +1.7% |
| Short sellers' scandium-scarcity claim is unprovable without Bloom's proprietary efficiency data; not selling Bloom | ||||
| ALPA4.SA | Jul 10, 2026 | $12.18 | $13.33 | +9.4% |
| Pure-play trade on viral fashion flip-flop trend; 98.9% of revenue comes from Javiana's, Q1 US volume +161% YoY | ||||
| TTWO | Jul 10, 2026 | $243.20 | $215.47 | -11.4% |
| If trailer 3 knocks it out of the park, I'm all in. | ||||
| BIRK | Jul 10, 2026 | $45.48 | $31.13 | -31.6% |
| Search index double YoY this June; July 16 ballet collab provides tailwind; tariff bad news already baked in | ||||
| MELI | Jul 10, 2026 | $1,852.22 | $1,897.37 | +2.4% |
| Long on the growth of online marketplace in South America/Latin America | ||||
| USO | Jun 16, 2026 | $115.47 | $154.90 | +34.1% |
| Got a little long USO as their only trade in the whole thing | ||||
| SG | May 20, 2026 | $9.01 | $7.10 | -21.2% |
| Chicken Caesar wrap could be a gamechanger that turns around declining traffic and same-store sales; niche influencer campaign is genius marketing | ||||
| COPX | Mar 23, 2026 | $73.55 | $88.53 | +20.4% |
| The go-to index to fast trade war news; cleanly correlated to war news and nothing else, with good liquidity | ||||
| UAE | Mar 23, 2026 | $18.60 | $19.89 | +6.9% |
| UAE ETF, super correlated to war news, easy one to fast trade | ||||
| JETS | Mar 23, 2026 | $24.93 | $28.17 | +13.0% |
| Decent one, highly correlated; takes away concentration risk of individual airlines. Short-term trade only, not holding | ||||
| GAIN | Mar 12, 2026 | $14.05 | $15.90 | +13.2% |
| Owns the company and not planning to sell until seeing the trade through | ||||
| MU | Mar 03, 2026 | $379.68 | $975.26 | +156.9% |
| they're in the driver's seat at least for the next few months... relatively not expensive | ||||
| EW | Mar 03, 2026 | $85.28 | $84.37 | -1.1% |
| memory shortage... can't increase capacity quickly enough, going to increase pricing instead | ||||
| STK | Mar 03, 2026 | $39.99 | $51.65 | +29.2% |
| memory shortage... can't increase capacity quickly enough, going to increase pricing instead | ||||
| WDC | Mar 03, 2026 | $250.61 | $447.18 | +78.4% |
| memory shortage... can't increase capacity quickly enough, going to increase pricing instead | ||||
| SKM | Mar 01, 2026 | $30.34 | $37.87 | +24.8% |
| Invested a lot of money in this company because I do want to have meaningful exposure to Anthropic | ||||
| AS | Feb 21, 2026 | $41.96 | $28.07 | -33.1% |
| Salomon hitting level four mass adoption, massive sellouts, 58% margins, transitioning to higher margin DTOC. | ||||
| VG | Jan 23, 2026 | $9.88 | $15.80 | +59.9% |
| LNG demand is supported by heating, electricity, AI-related power needs, chemical processes, and broader global energy consumption. | ||||
| LULU | Jan 23, 2026 | $191.07 | $98.97 | -48.2% |
| Holiday data looks strong, expectations are extremely low, and even a decent earnings report could spark a rebound. | ||||
| AAPL | Oct 29, 2025 | $269.70 | $332.27 | +23.2% |
| Still a meaningful long, but tariffs could seriously hurt Apple unless it receives another carve-out. | ||||
| GOOGL | Oct 29, 2025 | $274.57 | $338.50 | +23.3% |
| Now long with levered position into earnings; owns 14-15% of Anthropic; loves the risk-reward | ||||
| META | Oct 29, 2025 | $751.67 | $648.03 | -13.8% |
| Might play into earnings based on surging Instagram and Facebook app engagement data in Sept/Oct | ||||
| BROS | Oct 29, 2025 | $57.84 | $43.90 | -24.1% |
| Might take a speculative long position based on app engagement data stepping up, correlated with store sales; earnings Nov 5 | ||||
| TAC | Oct 10, 2025 | $15.59 | $12.08 | -22.5% |
| Biggest undiscovered AI trade; Alberta is unregulated 'Texas of Canada', TAC has two shut-down plants restartable in 12 months, cold-air cooling doubles efficiency, rumored Meta data center, earnings could double on compute | ||||
| IREN | Oct 10, 2025 | $59.77 | $43.83 | -26.7% |
| Can't sell it, holding for another nine months for long-term gains; previously bought early and 6x'd over the summer | ||||
| BE | Oct 03, 2025 | $90.29 | $275.75 | +205.4% |
| Can spin up energy for data centers faster than competitors; natural gas-related; rose on new contract this week | ||||
| CRI | Sep 07, 2025 | $28.74 | $30.43 | +5.9% |
| Wants to be levered up in weekly call options on Carter's days before a Taylor Swift pregnancy announcement, sell within 60 minutes — stock will jump the way Signet did on engagement news | ||||
| CBRL | Sep 05, 2025 | $52.81 | $49.48 | -6.3% |
| Reversed its logo rebrand, stock hadn't moved yet, so bought 10,000 shares after-hours. | ||||
| ONON | Jul 30, 2025 | $50.68 | $27.41 | -45.9% |
| Opened a long trade based on year-over-year web traffic comparables looking better than Hoka | ||||
| 9992.HK | Jul 17, 2025 | $250.40 | $153.00 | -38.9% |
| Invested a large amount of money on the Hong Kong exchange. Taps into the human desire to collect and feel something, broadening blind-box gambling to a mass-market demographic globally. | ||||
| QQQ short | Jun 20, 2025 | $526.83 | $714.88 | -35.7% |
| Buying puts as portfolio protection because he is heavily leveraged in technology and concerned about a possible escalation involving Iran. | ||||
| NVDA | Jun 06, 2025 | $141.72 | $218.29 | +54.0% |
| Sees Nvidia as a $10T company; sovereign AI buildout globally, ~$1T revenue from CFO comments, Jensen at Paris Tech Week next week. | ||||
| TSM | May 28, 2025 | $196.14 | $433.24 | +120.9% |
| Jordan stated 'TSM is mine' as a side bet, intending to pick some up | ||||
| PLTR | May 14, 2025 | $130.18 | $167.23 | +28.5% |
| Strong commercial traction remains vastly underappreciated, with continued commercial customer growth and expansion. | ||||
| BA | May 08, 2025 | $191.70 | $210.45 | +9.8% |
| Bought a ton of Boeing on UK trade deal news; countries will buy Boeing as part of tariff deals — 'this is not the last country that's going to announce a Boeing purchase' | ||||
| BTC | Apr 15, 2025 | $83,668.99 | $77,331.46 | -7.6% |
| Pro-crypto Trump and Vance, Bitcoin donations, the Bitcoin conference, and deficit spending could weaken the dollar. | ||||
| ELF | Apr 15, 2025 | $52.17 | $96.91 | +85.8% |
| Good recession cosmetic brand — cheapest in all of cosmetics; not selling at $50-60/share | ||||
| SPY | Apr 10, 2025 | $524.58 | $764.29 | +45.7% |
| Next time Trump posts 'buy' on Truth Social, will put $1,000 into zero-DTE SPY calls as a gamble | ||||
| TQQQ | Apr 10, 2025 | $23.07 | $70.98 | +207.7% |
| Got back into triple-leveraged QQQ in retirement account after Trump's 'good day to buy' post; worked out | ||||
| AMZN | Mar 28, 2025 | $192.72 | $256.78 | +33.2% |
| Legacy position he can't sell due to tax hit | ||||
| AMD | Mar 28, 2025 | $103.22 | $516.13 | +400.0% |
| Bought a starter/dabble position because of George Hotz's tinygrad open-source project enabling LLMs on AMD chips | ||||
| GRMN | Feb 21, 2025 | $224.71 | $282.67 | +25.8% |
| Recent winning trade; killed it on Garmin this past week | ||||
| INTU | Feb 21, 2025 | $565.47 | $321.57 | -43.1% |
| Elimination of government-subsidized free filing services would be huge for Intuit; could charge $10-30 for what was previously free, driving more revenue | ||||
| BABA | Jan 28, 2025 | $96.03 | $109.30 | +13.8% |
| pro-China democratization thesis | ||||
| TCEHY | Jan 28, 2025 | $52.60 | $54.44 | +3.5% |
| pro-China democratization thesis | ||||
| MARA | Nov 14, 2024 | $20.79 | $11.98 | -42.4% |
| Bitcoin miners should participate in the expected Bitcoin hype cycle and move with Bitcoin and Coinbase. | ||||
| TSLA | Nov 12, 2024 | $328.49 | $365.44 | +11.2% |
| Still long and plans to keep buying call options, with a much larger position after a live demonstration of humanoids doing useful, repetitive autonomous work. | ||||
| NDX | Nov 04, 2024 | $19,963.60 | $17,421.00 | -12.7% |
| Owns Nasdaq calls and expects volatility to compress after the election, with the Nasdaq reaching a new all-time high; will add on dips. | ||||
| LYFT short | Oct 09, 2024 | $12.51 | $15.32 | -22.5% |
| Materially cheaper Tesla autonomous rides could make Lyft the obvious ride-sharing loser. | ||||
| GEO | Aug 22, 2024 | $13.70 | $31.49 | +129.8% |
| Favorite election-cycle trade; go long if Trump gains and short if Harris gains because GEO closely tracks the perceived election winner. | ||||
| DHI | Aug 22, 2024 | $185.74 | $137.89 | -25.8% |
| Bullish Harris-linked homebuilder trade based on her plan to add three million housing units and support first-time buyers. | ||||
| KBH | Aug 22, 2024 | $81.78 | $49.16 | -39.9% |
| Liquid homebuilder vehicle the hosts would be happy to trade with options under a Harris housing policy. | ||||
| PHM | Aug 22, 2024 | $129.22 | $118.26 | -8.5% |
| Liquid homebuilder vehicle the hosts would be happy to trade with options under a Harris housing policy. | ||||
| TOL | Aug 22, 2024 | $141.27 | $134.92 | -4.5% |
| Liquid homebuilder vehicle the hosts would be happy to trade with options under a Harris housing policy. | ||||
| F | Jul 18, 2024 | $14.55 | $13.97 | -4.0% |
| A possible 30–60-day Trump trade: domestic, union-oriented American automakers could initially benefit from pro-America rhetoric. | ||||
| GM | Jul 18, 2024 | $49.65 | $85.62 | +72.5% |
| A possible 30–60-day Trump trade: domestic, union-oriented American automakers could initially benefit from pro-America rhetoric. | ||||
| CARR | Jul 02, 2024 | $62.83 | $57.46 | -8.6% |
| Likely to take a near-term position; focused HVAC business benefits from hotter weather, European heat-pump adoption, and AI data-center cooling. | ||||
| GNRC | Jul 02, 2024 | $137.30 | $186.99 | +36.2% |
| Trade Generac as a hurricane forms, before broader perception-driven buying fades. | ||||
| HD | Jul 02, 2024 | $334.97 | $308.74 | -7.8% |
| Buy short-dated weekly options five to six days before a major hurricane, targeting the perceived hurricane-winner move. | ||||
| LOW | Jul 02, 2024 | $213.70 | $196.82 | -7.9% |
| May buy weekly options a few days before a major hurricane as a perceived hurricane winner. | ||||
| USL | Jul 02, 2024 | $41.24 | $56.11 | +36.1% |
| Buy or trade the United States 12-Month Oil Fund when a powerful storm threatens Gulf of Mexico oil infrastructure. | ||||
| GME | May 15, 2024 | $39.55 | $21.15 | -46.5% |
| Re-entered long around $33–$34 for a highly speculative, seven-day trade on anticipated Roaring Kitty-driven hype, not a long-term turnaround. | ||||
| ADDYY | May 08, 2024 | $119.35 | $82.42 | -30.9% |
| Expects revenue outperformance as Samba momentum broadens, Spezial gains traction, and Anthony Edwards provides a major cultural catalyst. | ||||
| HOOD | May 08, 2024 | $17.85 | $112.57 | +530.6% |
| Robinhood is an underappreciated crypto trade that should benefit from continued crypto enthusiasm. | ||||
| BTO | Mar 07, 2024 | $29.50 | $38.78 | +31.5% |
| Leveraged Bitcoin exposure through April in-the-money calls during the expected ETF-inflow and halving buildup, with the risk that the options could lose 100%. | ||||
| LUNR | Feb 15, 2024 | $6.70 | $14.35 | +114.2% |
| Long the binary lunar-landing trade; success could establish Intuitive Machines as the leading private lunar-payload provider and drive substantial upside. | ||||
| DECK | Jan 26, 2024 | $127.96 | $81.27 | -36.5% |
| UGG is having its biggest holiday ever and HOKA remains strong; would go all in if classic full-height UGGs become fashionable again. | ||||
| TPR | Jan 26, 2024 | $38.97 | $118.49 | +204.1% |
| Coach’s Gen Z-driven revival, sized modestly because of Capri debt, weak sister brands, and institutional selling risk. | ||||
| UPRO | Jan 04, 2024 | $51.90 | $148.02 | +185.2% |
| Leveraged investing could outperform over long periods, based on research supporting a 3x-leveraged S&P 500 strategy. | ||||
Closed calls
| Ticker | Called | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Aug 06, 2025 | $524.94 | $384.63 | -26.7% |
| CELH | Aug 06, 2025 | $42.74 | $50.98 | +19.3% |
| LULU | Jul 30, 2025 | $206.47 | $204.97 | -0.7% |
| YETI | Jul 28, 2025 | $38.65 | $41.53 | +7.5% |
| GOOGL short | Apr 15, 2025 | $156.31 | $274.57 | -75.7% |
| NVDA | Mar 28, 2025 | $109.67 | $135.34 | +23.4% |
| ANF | Feb 28, 2025 | $102.99 | $87.23 | -15.3% |
| CRSR | Jan 23, 2025 | $9.35 | $5.77 | -38.3% |
| HOOD | Jan 21, 2025 | $50.00 | $20.96 | -58.1% |
| TSLA | Jan 21, 2025 | $424.07 | $171.32 | -59.6% |
| GME | Jun 04, 2024 | $26.50 | $22.12 | -16.5% |
| TSLA | Apr 04, 2024 | $171.11 | $242.84 | +41.9% |
Recent calls
hold
TSLA
Would rather wait for credible evidence that Optimus is nearing a major breakthrough, then shift money into Tesla; currently not investing aggressively because of Optimus.
2026-09-10
· video
sell
UBER
The picker says the one thing that stuck with them was shorting Uber, or using a long-term relative-value trade versus Tesla, because Tesla could shatter competitors' economics.
2026-09-10
· video
buy
VST conviction 7/10
Jordan bought Vistra as a pure-play electricity trade, arguing that expanding AI data centers will require substantially more power.
2026-09-08
· video
buy
NBIS conviction 6/10
Jordan bought Nebius during the major market drop as an AI-infrastructure and cloud-related holding.
2026-09-08
· video
buy
MU conviction 7/10
Dave bought the dip in Micron, believing the market is increasingly recognizing that memory efficiency can support rather than hurt memory demand.
2026-09-08
· video
hold
TTWO conviction 7/10
Dave is invested long in Take-Two and expects AI to lower the cost of expanding and enriching established game universes such as GTA 6.
2026-09-08
· video
hold
add
AMZN conviction 8/10
Dave and Jordan are adding Amazon for its OpenAI and Anthropic exposure, AWS infrastructure, custom chips, advertising, and long-term AI-driven operating leverage.
2026-09-08
· video
buy
U conviction 7/10
Dave bought Unity as a picks-and-shovels play for AI-generated games and worlds; Unity provides the editor, scenes, code execution, and AI gateway.
2026-09-08
· video
add
BE conviction 9/10
Dave repeatedly added Bloom on the way down and would add more on weakness because he sees it as a relatively clean AI-energy beneficiary.
2026-09-08
· video
add
AMZN
Going deeper on Amazon because roughly 40% profit growth matters more than temporary rate concerns; consistently adds when the stock is hit by market stupidity.
2026-09-04
· video
hold
TTWO
Still has a really nice long position and remains bullish on GTA 6 engagement, unit sales, and future microtransaction revenue.
2026-09-04
· video
sell
VSCO
The shift from structured bras to bralettes was expected to be devastating for Victoria’s Secret.
2026-08-21
· video
buy
AMZN conviction 9/10
Placed an insanely large bet because developer discussions showed cloud migration accelerating, making AWS a game-changing opportunity for Amazon.
2026-08-13
· video
We track this picker's explicit on-camera calls faithfully — we don't endorse or judge them. Marks are hypothetical and exclude fees and taxes. Not financial advice.