Dumb Money Live
Return
+8.7%
Hit rate
59%
Open calls
33
Closed
1
Open calls
| Ticker | Called | Entry | Now | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Jan 30, 2026 | $239.30 | $231.39 | -3.3% |
| Artificial selling headwind from insiders is a benefit to long-term investors, will make it all back times five. | ||||
| HOOD | Feb 06, 2026 | $82.82 | $95.65 | +15.5% |
| Picked up new call options for earnings after exiting prior HOOD options. | ||||
| SKM | Mar 01, 2026 | $30.34 | $35.24 | +16.1% |
| Invested a lot of money in this company because I do want to have meaningful exposure to Anthropic | ||||
| TTWO | Jul 12, 2026 | $243.20 | $243.95 | +0.3% |
| Trading short-term options on the trailer because the stock is likely to move meaningfully that week | ||||
| ALPA4.SA | Jul 10, 2026 | $12.18 | $11.44 | -6.1% |
| Pure-play trade on viral fashion flip-flop trend; 98.9% of revenue comes from Javiana's. | ||||
| ANF | Feb 28, 2025 | $102.99 | $99.35 | -3.5% |
| Hollister (~40-45% of company) is crushing it with Gen Z; all data sources aligned — Google Trends, Amazon, app, web checkout, TikTok comments. Stock dropped ~40-45% on recession/tariff fears. | ||||
| BE | Jan 09, 2026 | $134.07 | $188.18 | +40.4% |
| one of the most interesting misunderstood AI plays; could 5x or 6x over the next few years on conventional multiples and expected earnings growth | ||||
| COPX | Mar 23, 2026 | $73.55 | $77.90 | +5.9% |
| Cleanly correlated to war news and nothing else; go-to index to fast trade the end of the war | ||||
| CRSR | Jan 23, 2025 | $9.35 | $10.53 | +12.6% |
| Nvidia 50-series chips drive a PC refresh cycle tailwind for a stock down ~70% from pandemic peaks | ||||
| QQQ | Jun 20, 2026 | $740.62 | $682.12 | -7.9% |
| Widespread adoption of AI will enhance profitability across the tech sector, likely lifting multiples. | ||||
| SOXX | Jun 20, 2026 | $639.45 | $516.23 | -19.3% |
| Increased demand for AI-driven technology will boost semiconductor sales as firms invest in AI capabilities. | ||||
| GOOGL | Feb 10, 2026 | $318.58 | $326.56 | +2.5% |
| Beneficiary because they have a decade of your data; will continue to be top of portfolio | ||||
| GRMN | Feb 21, 2025 | $224.71 | $242.47 | +7.9% |
| Killed it on Garmin this past week — recent winning trade | ||||
| TSM | Mar 23, 2026 | $338.45 | $399.09 | +17.9% |
| You got to love Taiwan Semi right here; demand is through the roof | ||||
| UAE | Mar 23, 2026 | $18.60 | $18.86 | +1.4% |
| Super correlated, super easy one to trade the end of the war | ||||
| BIRK | Jul 10, 2026 | $45.48 | $41.55 | -8.6% |
| Took a long position in Birkenstock; search index doubled year-over-year from June to June. | ||||
| INTU | Feb 21, 2025 | $565.47 | $303.91 | -46.3% |
| Elimination of government-subsidized free filing would be huge for Intuit; could charge ~$10-30 for what was previously free | ||||
| JETS | Mar 23, 2026 | $24.93 | $30.97 | +24.2% |
| Decent one, highly correlated to war news; takes away concentration risk of individual airlines | ||||
| MELI | Jul 10, 2026 | $1,852.22 | $1,819.74 | -1.8% |
| Long on the growth of online marketplace in South America/Latin America. | ||||
| MU | Mar 03, 2026 | $379.68 | $900.20 | +137.1% |
| Memory shortage, pricing power, forward PE in low teens, relatively not expensive | ||||
| AMD | Apr 30, 2026 | $354.49 | $494.95 | +39.6% |
| Part of AI sector trade, but not the heaviest position | ||||
| AS | Feb 21, 2026 | $41.96 | $35.18 | -16.2% |
| Arcteryx and Salomon brands exploding globally, high margins, massive sellouts, strong credit card and search data. | ||||
| EW | Mar 03, 2026 | $85.28 | $83.04 | -2.6% |
| Bought a little due to memory shortage thesis | ||||
| SG | May 20, 2026 | $9.01 | $6.17 | -31.5% |
| Chicken Caesar wrap could be a game changer for the company; getting on an existing massive trend is the right move for a national company. | ||||
| STK | Mar 03, 2026 | $39.99 | $47.59 | +19.0% |
| Bought a little due to memory shortage thesis | ||||
| TAC | Jan 16, 2026 | $12.56 | $13.45 | +7.1% |
| Thesis unchanged on Alberta energy company as data center beneficiary; doubling down position now despite weak Alberta energy prices and CEO transition | ||||
| TSLA | Feb 10, 2026 | $425.21 | $309.22 | -27.3% |
| Built-in backdoor to xAI; will continue to be top of portfolio and outsized portion of holdings | ||||
| WDC | Mar 03, 2026 | $250.61 | $497.92 | +98.7% |
| Bought a little due to memory shortage thesis | ||||
| USO | Jun 16, 2026 | $115.47 | $124.76 | +8.1% |
| Got a little long USO as their only trade in the whole thing | ||||
| AAPL | Jan 23, 2025 | $223.66 | $336.91 | +50.6% |
| BL | Jul 22, 2026 | $27.87 | $30.66 | +10.0% |
| Short sellers' scandium-scarcity claim is unprovable without Bloom's proprietary efficiency data; not selling. | ||||
| ELF | Jan 23, 2025 | $118.38 | $84.01 | -29.0% |
| GAIN | Mar 12, 2026 | $14.05 | $16.28 | +15.9% |
| Owns the company and not planning to sell until seeing the trade through | ||||
Closed calls
| Ticker | Called | Entry | Exit | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Feb 23, 2026 | $191.55 | $128.99 | -32.7% |
Recent calls
hold
TSLA conviction 5/10
Fairly light position but can't not have a position; uses options for upside insurance in case automotive news turns positive. Frustrated market ignores Optimus.
2025-02-28
· video
buy
ANF conviction 8/10
Hollister (~40-45% of company) is crushing it with Gen Z; all data sources aligned — Google Trends, Amazon, app, web checkout, TikTok comments. Stock dropped ~40-45% on recession/tariff fears.
2025-02-28
· video
add
HOOD conviction 9/10
Second largest position; multi-year social-arbitrage play. Vlad expanding into real estate, mortgages, cards, prediction markets, sports wagering. Believes it becomes world's largest financial institution within 20 years.
2025-02-28
· video
trim
BIRK conviction 3/10
Long trade didn't go as well as anticipated; earnings were great but a tariff comment tanked sentiment. Has been pulling out over the past couple quarters.
2025-02-28
· video
hold
TSLA conviction 8/10
Core thesis is Optimus; expects narrative to shift from autos to FSD and Optimus by end of 2025. Actively trading ITM calls as insurance.
2025-02-21
· video
sell
FVRR conviction 7/10
Short position that crushed it this past week — recent winning trade.
2025-02-21
· video
trim
PLTR conviction 7/10
Sold half equity stake and all options near top; social arb thesis no longer applies as world caught up. Still holds other half long-term.
2025-02-21
· video
buy
buy
HOOD conviction 6/10
Obvious beneficiary of any Doge dividend; majority of 2020/2021 stimmy checks went into savings and investment accounts.
2025-02-21
· video
buy
CRSR conviction 8/10
One of the biggest trades he's made recently; trade continues to move favorably. Originally tipped by Dumb Money community.
2025-02-21
· video
buy
INTU conviction 6/10
Elimination of government-subsidized free filing would be huge for Intuit; could charge ~$10-30 for what was previously free.
2025-02-21
· video
hold
TSLA conviction 6/10
Dave holding a moderate lever position he's not afraid to lose if earnings are terrible; Jordan not touching his Tesla stock
2025-01-28
· video
sell
NVDA conviction 7/10
Dave sold 100% of his Nvidia at 6am Monday; Chris sold in IRA; Jordan sold in one account. Capex growth in question.
2025-01-28
· video
buy
BABA conviction 3/10
Chris contemplating buying due to pro-China democratization thesis; hasn't purchased yet
2025-01-28
· video
buy
TCEHY conviction 3/10
Chris contemplating buying due to pro-China democratization thesis; hasn't purchased yet
2025-01-28
· video
hold
buy
CRSR conviction 5/10
Nvidia 50-series chips drive a PC refresh cycle tailwind for a stock down ~70% from pandemic peaks
2025-01-23
· video
add
TSLA conviction 9/10
Optimus is the most important product the world has ever seen; going into Tesla earnings levered
2025-01-23
· video
hold
AAPL
Still hold sizable positions from very low cost basis; Apple as a marginable blue-chip base
2025-01-23
· video
hold
sell
sell
RL
Data became too mixed on Ralph Lauren relative to the market expectations which were just climbing
2025-01-23
· video
sell
GOOS conviction 5/10
Tariff-risk short trade; ~70%+ of coats manufactured in Canada, ~30% sourced from Europe; if Canada tariffs hit it would be catastrophic
2025-01-21
· video
trim
AAPL conviction 5/10
Maybe could shuffle some Apple to free capital for Tesla; Apple growing more slowly from an AI standpoint and earnings risk
2025-01-21
· video
buy
HOOD conviction 10/10
Has to really screw things up to not be a $115-150B company in 10 years; young demographic, $80-100T wealth transfer, UI 100x better, deregulation lets them move 5x faster
2025-01-21
· video
hold
TSLA conviction 9/10
All in on Tesla; robots, autonomy, Elon; would buy the dip if he had capital, wants to be 4X heavier than current position
2025-01-21
· video
sell
STZ conviction 6/10
Tariff-risk short trade; 84% of revenue is Mexican beer/product, already hit by reduced alcohol consumption; if Feb 1 tariffs materialize it would be catastrophic
2025-01-21
· video
buy
TTWO conviction 9/10
If they deliver the game people want, there's no ceiling... I will be ultra long Take-Two going into the release and beyond.
2026-07-21
· video
hold
BL
I'm not selling Bloom. Short sellers' scandium-scarcity claim is unprovable without Bloom's proprietary efficiency data.
2026-07-22
· video
add
AMZN conviction 10/10
Too embedded in everything; never would bet against Amazon; keeps buying to a ludicrous degree
2026-07-22
· video
add
AMZN conviction 10/10
It's mostly Amazon… I'll keep reinvesting every time nervous investors take it down
2026-07-25
· video
hold
BE conviction 8/10
I'm not selling blue. I might buy more Bloom. I'm in. I don't care [about delays].
2026-07-13
· video
buy
TTWO conviction 8/10
I would likely be trading short-term options on that trailer because I think the stock is going to move pretty meaningfully one way or the other that week
2026-07-12
· video
add
add
AMZN conviction 10/10
Buying more to the point where it's ludicrous; they're too embedded in everything and he refuses to bet against them
2026-07-10
· video
buy
BIRK conviction 6/10
I took a long position in Birkenstock... search index this June to last June. Double year-over-year.
2026-07-10
· video
buy
BE conviction 8/10
Short seller scandium supply rumors are rehashed and likely false given major deals with Brookfield and Oracle.
2026-07-10
· video
buy
ALPA4.SA conviction 8/10
Pure-play trade on viral fashion flip-flop trend; 98.9% of revenue comes from Javiana's.
2026-07-10
· video
hold
MELI conviction 6/10
Long on the growth of online marketplace in South America/Latin America.
2026-07-10
· video
hold
AMZN conviction 8/10
Aggressively hyped and levered and pumped about my Amazon long position more so than I ever have.
2026-07-10
· video
add
AMZN conviction 9/10
I just keep buying more Amazon...to the point where it it's ludicrous and I just don't care.
2026-07-03
· video
hold
MU conviction 6/10
I'm still long memory, dude...I almost bought some more micron in the night because I had sold a bunch...I almost bought some more of them.
2026-07-03
· video
buy
QQQ conviction 8/10
Widespread adoption of AI will enhance profitability across the tech sector, likely lifting multiples.
2026-06-20
· video
buy
NVDA conviction 9/10
Nvidia is positioned to benefit significantly from the AI super cycle due to its leading role in AI infrastructure.
2026-06-20
· video
· target $300
buy
SOXX conviction 8/10
Increased demand for AI-driven technology will boost semiconductor sales as firms invest in AI capabilities.
2026-06-20
· video
hold
hold
SG conviction 5/10
Still in the position; loved the risk-reward on wrap product options trade, still think that trade exists today but will sell at some point.
2026-06-17
· video
hold
HOOD conviction 6/10
Crypto weakness pressures it short term but still see it as largest financial institution on earth in next two decades; considering adding if it drops more.
2026-06-17
· video
add
AMZN conviction 7/10
Bought a bit more on the flush; holding cash/leverage to go meaningfully deeper when debt issuance shoe drops, expecting quick recovery after short-term dip.
2026-06-17
· video
add
HOOD conviction 8/10
still the largest financial institution on earth in the next two decades
2026-06-16
· video
We track this picker's explicit on-camera calls faithfully — we don't endorse or judge them. Marks are hypothetical and exclude fees and taxes. Not financial advice.